Global Ad Spending to Reach $1 Trillion Milestone

The global advertising market is poised for continued growth in 2025, but the tempo is slowing. After the post-pandemic boom, the industry appears to be settling into a steady, single-digit pace, echoing trends from the mid-2000s. Forecasts highlight regional disparities, political uncertainties, and sector-specific shifts that could reshape the market.

A Slower, Predictable Growth Rate

Global ad spending, excluding political dollars, is projected to rise 7.7% to $1.1 trillion in 2025, according to GroupM. This marks a slowdown from the 9.5% increase expected in 2024.

• Digital Advertising: Dominating the market, digital ad spending is expected to grow 8.4% next year, down from 14.3% growth in 2024. Digital will still account for a massive 72.9% of total global ad spend.
• Dentsu’s Prediction: More conservative, projecting a 5.9% growth rate—still ahead of the global economy by 2.7%.

This deceleration reflects the natural maturation of digital advertising, which has moved beyond the explosive “Covid bonanza” era of 30% annual growth seen in 2021.

Regional Variances: Europe vs. North America

• Europe: Ad spending in Europe is expected to grow 6.1% in 2025, down sharply from 10% in 2024. According to Daniel Knapp, Chief Economist at IAB Europe, economic recovery isn’t translating into faster ad growth due to weaker business churn and economic dynamism.
• North America: Forecasted growth is more modest, driven by political uncertainties and cautious budget planning. A potential Trump administration and its trade policies could impact retail media and e-commerce advertising.

Middle East and Africa (EMEA) show more optimism, with senior marketers signaling plans to increase ad budgets, according to a World Federation Advertisers and Ebiquity poll.

Key Factors Influencing 2025 Ad Spending

1. Retail Media Slows

• Retail media revenue is expected to hit $176.9 billion in 2025, surpassing global TV revenue for the first time.
• Growth slows to 9.1% annually after an 18.2% rise in 2024, as the sector shifts to a more sustainable trajectory.

2. Social Media Faces Uncertainty

• Social media ad spending is predicted to grow 5.4% in 2025, down sharply from 16.7% in 2024.
• A potential TikTok ban or rebranding in the U.S. could cause spending to shift to Meta, Snap, and Alphabet.

3. AI and Streaming Shake Up the Market

• AI-powered platforms are redefining the search ad market.
• Streaming services, with Amazon leading video ad pricing shifts, are impacting traditional video ad revenues.

4. Political and Economic Volatility

• Trade policies, tariffs, and political changes could disrupt cross-border e-commerce, a critical driver of ad spend.
• Events like the Winter X Games and Australian Open will provide modest ad opportunities compared to larger global events like the Olympics.

Stability With a Side of Instability

While 2025 promises a sense of stability, the reality remains unpredictable. Josh Rosen, President of Hotspex Media, explains:

“Advertising budgets will stabilize in Q1 2025, but the market remains fluid, shaped by technology, policy, and shifting consumer behavior.”

The ad industry, entering a slower-growth phase, must adapt to a maturing market. As AI, retail media, and streaming trends continue to evolve, advertisers will need to strike a balance between stability and innovation to navigate the year ahead.